德勤:2017中国企业海外投资指南

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德勤在最新发布的《引领全球化新进程—德勤2017中国企业海外投资指南》中指出,面对全球政治经济格局变化,加上中国对资本外流收紧管控,为今年的中国企业海外投资增添了更多不确定性。然而,战略收购项目和中国企业就“一带一路”做出的相关投资项目,预期将保持快速发展。

据该指南介绍,2016年中国对外非金融类直接投资累计创纪录新高,达1,702亿美元,同比增长44.1%,当中大部分为制造业并购项目,其总投资金额占比高达26.6%;其次是电信、软件和信息技术行业的并购项目(占14.7%)。2016年是大宗交易频现的一年,交易值超过10亿美元的交易比例增速最快。

德勤全球中国服务部主席杨莹表示:“目前中国传统行业正积极通过技术和管理创新转型升级,新经济为中国注入新增长动能。在此背景下,中国企业以购买先进技术、成熟品牌和渠道为主要目的的‘走出去’意愿强烈。”。在国家战略的带动下,中国企业对“一带一路”沿线国家的跨境投资并购活跃,其中以东南亚和南亚最具市场潜力,因此也成了最热门的投资地。德勤判断,这些投资目的地因其巨大需求和潜力还将持续升温。

展望未来,鉴于中国政府将对资本外流加强管控,德勤预计2017年较大规模的并购交易将会随之减少,跨行业并购也将受到影响。西欧和北美虽然仍然是中国企业海外并购的最主要目标国,然而随着欧美主要经济体的政府领导层换届,中国与欧美国家的贸易关系将面临一些规则调整。

尽管面对上述变化,中国企业海外投资的持续趋势不可逆转,中国政府也将继续支持中国企业的战略性对外投资,借此优化经济结构。2017年,中国企业将继续进取地收购与其核心业务直接相关的项目,从而获取成熟技术和供应链资源。智能制造、数字经济和消费升级相关的并购活动也将成为今年中国对外投资关注的核心领域。

德勤中国首席经济学家许思涛表示:“2016年频繁爆发的‘黑天鹅’事件让我们看到全球化进程发生了很大改变,但我们不认为这是全球化的终结,反而是全球化的新进程。在新的征途中,我们相信中国会从过去较为被动地参与全球价值链分工变为更加积极主动地参与价值链重塑。”

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